Years after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, its origins remain uncertain. However, Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) reportedly concluded as early as 2020 that a lab accident in Wuhan, China, was the most likely cause. Despite this, the German Chancellery under Merkel and later Scholz kept the report classified, according to investigative reports from Die Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung.
German intelligence suggests lab accident likely caused COVID-19 pandemic
BND: 80–95% probability that COVID-19 originated in a lab accident
The BND’s assessment reportedly assigned a high probability (80–95%) to the theory that COVID-19 leaked from a laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), a leading Chinese research center specializing in viruses.
The German intelligence agency based its conclusions on:
- Analysis of public data
- Confidential material obtained during “Operation Saaremaa”, which included scientific data from Chinese research institutions
- Evidence suggesting multiple safety violations at the WIV, particularly in gain-of-function experiments, where viruses are artificially altered to develop new properties.
Merkel and Scholz administrations withheld the findings
The BND was reportedly commissioned by former Chancellor Angela Merkel to investigate the origins of COVID-19. BND President Bruno Kahl personally briefed the Chancellery on the intelligence findings.
However, Merkel’s government decided to keep the report classified. Neither Merkel, her former Chief of Staff, nor Johannes Geismann, the State Secretary for Intelligence Affairs, have commented on the matter.
After Olaf Scholz took office in 2021, he too was briefed on the BND’s findings. However, Germany’s Parliamentary Oversight Committee, responsible for supervising intelligence agencies, was not informed—nor was the World Health Organization (WHO).
Calls for transparency and political fallout
The lack of disclosure has sparked criticism. Janosch Dahmen, a Green Party health expert, stated that he was never made aware of any intelligence findings related to the pandemic’s origins. However, he argued that, regardless of the source, it would not have changed Germany’s pandemic response.
Wolfgang Kubicki, Vice Chairman of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), accused the government of deliberately keeping the public and parliament in the dark. He further criticized Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD), arguing that the government needs more trustworthy figures moving forward.
Scientific review of BND findings underway
In late 2024, the outgoing German government commissioned independent scientists to review the BND’s conclusions. The panel includes:
- Christian Drosten, Berlin-based virologist
- Lars Schade, President of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI)
According to a report in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, several high-level meetings have already taken place. While some scientists remain skeptical of the lab-leak theory, others believe that the likelihood of this scenario is increasing.
The investigation continues, with no final conclusions yet reached.
